2022 MLB Playoffs: Padres vs. Mets Odds, Line, Wild Card Series 3 Game Picks, Predictions from Proven Model

Three of the four games in MLB’s Wild Card Series have been set, but a holdover awaits in the form of a Game 3 on Sunday afternoon. The New York Mets host the San Diego Padres in a win-or-go scenario for both teams. San Diego won Friday’s opener, only for New York to respond with a win on Saturday. Chris Bassitt takes the ball for the Mets in Game 3, with Joe Musgrove on the mound for the Padres.

First pitch is at 7:07 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists New York as a -140 favorite (risk $140 to win $100) on the moneyline, while the over/under, or the total number of runs Vegas thinks it will score, is 6.5 at most recent odds padres vs. Mets. Before making any Mets vs. Padres picks, you need to check out the MLB predictions and betting tips from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and entered the final week of the regular season on an 18-8 streak with top MLB picks, returning nearly $700 on $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of the three best bets to win it all last season. Anyone who has followed it has seen tremendous returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on the Mets vs. Padres and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head over to SportsLine now to check out the model options. Here are several MLB odds and lines for Padres vs. Mets:

  • Mets vs. Padres money line: New York -140, San Diego +118
  • Mets vs. Padres over/under: 6.5 runs
  • Mets vs. Padres line: New York -1.5 (+162)
  • NYM: The Mets are 55-28 at home this season
  • SD: The Padres are 46-37 in road games this season
  • Mets vs. Padres picks: See the picks here

Selected game | New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres

Why you should root for the Padres

The Padres can be comfortable with Musgrove on the mound. The 2022 All-Star produced a 2.93 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 30 starts, holding opponents to a .667 OPS in the process. Musgrove averaged 9.1 strikeouts and only 2.1 walks per nine innings, and finished the season allowing just one run over his final 22 innings of work. With Musgrove gone, the Padres also have a strong bullpen, ranking No. 3 in the National League in wins above replacement by relief pitchers.

Padres relievers have combined for a 3.83 ERA and 45.1% ground ball rate this season, and San Diego can also take solace in a quality offense. The Padres finished in the top five in the NL in doubles, walks, strikeouts and on-base percentage, and San Diego also found success against Mets starter Chris Bassitt. In two starts, Bassitt has allowed nine earned runs in 10.1 innings against the Padres this season.

Why you should root for the Mets

New York projects as the superior offensive team in this matchup. The Mets led the National League in hits, batting average and strikeouts this season, putting pressure on the opposition at every turn. New York also finished in the top three in both grades and on-base percentage, with top-five marks in slugging percentage, OPS and total bases. The Mets have a deep hitting group, but Pete Alonso is the team’s top power option. Alonso, a two-time All-Star, hit 40 home runs and posted a .518 slugging percentage this season.

New York is also strong on the run prevention side, with an above-average bullpen (3.55 ERA) and a stellar starting pitcher on the mound in Bassitt. Bassitt has produced a 3.42 ERA this season, including a 2.95 ERA in home starts and a 2.70 ERA since early August. Bassitt also has long-term success on his side, including a sparkling 3.29 ERA over his last five seasons of work.

How to make Mets vs. Padres picks

SportsLine’s model leans toward the total, projecting 8.1 total runs. It also says that one side of the money line has all the value. MLB options of the model can only be found at SportsLine.

So who wins Mets vs. Padres? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which Padres vs. Mets side you should jump on, all from the model that has crushed MLB’s picks and find out.

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