Analysis: Protests in Iran continue and pose a threat to Tehran

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Protests in Iran over the death of a 22-year-old woman arrested by the country’s morality police have dragged on for a third week, even as authorities cut the internet, deployed riot troops and attacked perceived enemies in abroad.

This playbook of repression has worked in the past, but the spontaneous protests over the death of Mahsa Amini persist and change. In a recent incident, high school students kicked out a hardliner while famous politicians and actors abroad were now cutting their hair with scissorsfollowing Iranian protesters who have done the same.

The longevity and transformation of the protests present a new threat to Tehran, one not seen since the 2009 Green Movement protests brought millions to the streets.

The apparently spontaneous and leaderless protests—fueled largely by the middle and upper classes—share some of the same strengths and weaknesses as those of a decade ago. Iran’s theocracy eventually crushed them over time. Whether he will do the same now remains in doubt.

Getting a true picture of what is happening across Iran, a nation of more than 80 million people that is two and a half times the size of the US state of Texas, is difficult even in quiet times, given government restrictions.

Now, that’s even harder. Authorities have arrested at least 35 journalists and photographers since the protests began on September 17, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. Most information comes from seconds-long video clips that activists manage to upload online.

The protests began at the burial site of Amini, an Iranian-Kurdish woman detained by Iran’s roving morality police forces. Since the election of hardline president Ebrahim Raisi last yearmorality patrols have become more aggressive, with videos circulating of officers manhandling young women over their clothes or wearing a loose, mandatory headscarf, known as the hijab.

Iran’s government insists Amini was not abused, as state television broadcast footage of her collapsing in a police station and being cared for. However, no video of her arrest or transfer to the police station has emerged even after Tehran began equipping police officers with body cameras five years ago. That, as well as a quick burial reportedly requested by security officials, sparked outrage in her hometown of Saqqez, about 460 kilometers (285 miles) west of Tehran.

In that demonstration and subsequent ones across the country, protesting women have twisted their headscarves and screamed in Farsi “Death to the dictator!” in a reference to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

It’s a dangerous cry in a country where accusations of being “mofsed-e-filarz,” or “corrupting the land,” through political dissent can carry the death penalty in Iran’s closed-door Revolutionary Court.

The full extent of the protests and crackdown remains unclear. An Associated Press count of state and state media reports shows that at least 1,900 arrests have been made in connection with the protests. Protests have been reported in at least 50 cities, towns and villages.

State television last reported that at least 41 people had been killed in the September 24 protests. In the nearly two weeks since then, there has been no update from the Iranian government.

An Oslo-based group called Iran Human Rights estimates that at least 154 people have been killed, although an estimated 63 people were killed in the violence in the eastern Iranian city of Zahedan. Iranian authorities have described the violence in Zahedan as the involvement of unnamed separatists, although Iran Human Rights said the incident began as a revenge attack for rape allegations against a local police officer.

Meanwhile, Iran has launched cross-border attacks on Kurdish separatists in Iraq as well and insisted the protests are a foreign conspiracy — all apparently designed to distract from widespread anger over Iran’s mandatory hijab.

Since Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979 and the chaotic years that immediately followed, protests have been a common feature across the country. Many focus on local issues rather than national political change, such as farmers upset over the country’s depleting water suppliesteachers wanting higher wages or pensioners angry after losing their pension savings in widely criticized privatization moves.

Student protests hit Tehran in 1999. Economic protests swept the country in late 2017 and early 2018. And in 2019, anger over the government’s removal of gasoline subsidies similarly sparked protests across the country.

But unlike those three previous waves, this time the hardliners control every lever of power in Iran’s presidency, judiciary and parliament, meaning there is no one else to blame. So did the 2009 Green Movement protests, sparked by the re-election of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad amid widespread allegations of fraud..

The 2009 protests were also concentrated in urban areas and featured predominantly middle- and upper-class protesters. Similar groups of people have taken part in the current protests, with witnesses saying they have not heard any of the economic chants from the most recent rounds of demonstrations. Iranian celebrities and soccer stars also spoke.

However, there are still clear differences between 2009 and today. The 2009 protests saw millions take to the streets. So far, the current protests have not mobilized such large crowds at once.

The 2009 protests also lasted for months before slowing and finally ending in 2011, when authorities arrested their leaders amid the Arab Spring protests. The current protests have not yet reached the four-week mark, although critical moments are coming.

Perhaps most importantly, Iran appears to be preparing for Saturday, the start of Iranian week, when university students will have to resume classes in person. Last Sunday, security forces fired tear gas and firearms at students protesting at Sharif University of Technology in Tehran, according to the New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran. This university and others went online for the rest of the week.

If protests continue in classrooms and streets across Iran, Iran’s hardline government will have to decide what to do next. So far, however, there are no signs that they will back down.

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EDITOR’S NOTE — Jon Gambrell, the Gulf and Iran news director for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations around the world since joining AP in 2006. Follow him on Twitter at www .twitter.com/jongambrellAP.