by Week 5 of NFL The season is upon us and FOX Sports Research is here to continue to give you the edge you need to turn a profit this week.
Last week’s trending piece highlighted a few winners.
Four road underdogs covered against the spread (ATS), Kliff Kingsbury improved to 8-0 ATS and straight up (SU) as a road underdog in regular season games from last year. Las Vegas Raiders covered and earned their first victory and the Dallas Cowboys continued their betting dominance against NFC East rivals with a win over the Washington Governors.
As always, we took a deep dive into the data and analyzed the overall patterns to identify the best trends of the week. We’ve also looked at more manager and player trends to help inform you on who to bet on this week.
Let’s get into it and have fun!
Over hits in Week 5 games with an Over/Under of 43 or less
Since 2000, the Over has hit in 82 of the 137 Week 5 games (59.9%) in which the total was 43 or lower. Looking at the same situations from 2005, the Over struck out in 53 of 89 such games (59.6%). And looking at a more recent sample size, since 2010, the Over has hit in 27 of 45 games (60%) with a total of 43 points or less.
Entering this weekend, there are four games with an Over/Under point total of 43 or less.
Matched games are (totals provided by FOX Bet):
Indianapolis Colts in the Denver Broncos (42.5)
New York Giants in the Green Bay Packers (40.5)
San Francisco 49ers in the Carolina Panthers (38.5)
Tennessee Titans in the Washington Governors (42.5)
7- to 14-point home favorites don’t cover as often as you might think in Week 5
Week 5 features five games with favorites of seven or more points, with six favorites coming at home. We decided to look at how often home favorites of seven to 14 points have historically covered the spread in Week 5 matchups. The results are below:
- Since 2018: 6-7 ATS (46.2%)
- Since 2015: 8-11-1 ATS (42.1%)
- Since 2010: 17-15-1 ATS (53.1%)
- Since 2005: 22-18-2 ATS (55%)
- Since 2000: 25-29-3 ATS (46.3%)
As you can see above, the coverage rate is below 50% when we go back to 2015 and 2018. While it increases when we look at the rates from 2005 and 2010, it drops significantly to 46.3% when we look at the coverage rate from 2000 Simply put, it was not profitable to bet on teams for coverage in these situations.
The FOX Bet spreads for each of the six games matched this weekend are:
Pittsburgh Steelers in the Buffalo Bills (-14)
Chicago Bears in the Minnesota Vikings (-7)
Houston Texans in the Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
Atlanta Falcons in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9)
Las Vegas Raiders in the Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
Accounts are covered as double-digit favorites
The Bills were covered as double-digit favorites against the Titans earlier this season, and history says they will do so again this week against the Steelers.
As we mentioned in Our post for week 2, Buffalo is dominant under Sean McDermott as a double-digit favorite. Under his watch, the Bills have gone 6-2-2 ATS (75%) and 9-1 SU (90%) in such situations. McDermott and the Bills have also been a solid cover as home favorites, going 16-9-3 ATS (64%) and 23-5 SU (82.1%) in those games.
FOX Bet currently have the Bills as 14-point favourites.
If you’re wondering what they are as a 14-point favorite or more under McDermott, they’re 3-2-2 ATS (60%) and 6-1 SU (85.7%) in those games.
The Lions have to cover the Patriots
This might be a little strange, considering Detroit Lions’ eternal struggles, but there are many data points in their direction.
Since 2018, Detroit is 15-13 ATS (53.6%) as an underdog and also 6-4 ATS (60%) in such situations under Dan Campbell. Possibly the most impressive nugget is that the Lions are 14-7 ATS (66.7%) overall from last season, tied with the Packers for the second-best regular-season coverage percentage over that span (the Cowboys are first ).
It’s also interesting that the Lions are underdogs in the New England quarterback standings Mc Jones and Brian Hoyer is still uncertain. If both are blocked, Bailey Zappe will make his first career NFL start. Something to watch.
Look for the Chiefs to cover the raiders
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs put on a dominant performance against the Buccaneers last week, and they’ll have to cover again this week. While we said earlier that seven- to 14-point home favorites don’t cover Week 5 very often, the Chiefs are the exception here — especially since they’re playing the Raiders. Under Andy Reid, the Chiefs are an astounding 7-2 ATS (77.8%) and 8-1 SU (88.9%) at home when playing the Raiders. Overall, Kansas City is 12-6 ATS (66.7%) and 15-3 SU (88.3%) against the Raiders under Reid. Remarkably, the Over has struck out in 10 of those 18 games (55.6%).
Other data doesn’t point in the Raiders’ direction either. Since 2018, they are 6-7 ATS (46.2%) and 5-8 SU (38.5%) on the road against AFC West opponents. FOX Bet currently has the Chiefs as 7.5 point favorites in Monday’s matchup.
The dolphins must be covered by the jets
Despite Tua Tagovailoa being excluded for Sunday’s match with New York JetsThe Miami Dolphins they have been dominant in this match for the last few years. Since 2016, Miami is 9-2-1 ATS (81.8%) and 10-2 SU (83.3%) when playing the Jets, with the Under hitting in seven of those 12 games (58.3 %).
The Dolphins are also 17-8-1 ATS (68%) and 15-11 SU (57.7%) against AFC East opponents since 2018 and, more specifically, are 7-4-1 ATS (63.6%) on the road when playing division rivals during the same period.
It should also be mentioned that Teddy Bridgewater will get the start for the Dolphins. Bridgewater is an astounding 24-6 ATS (80%) as a starter in road games. The Miami native is 5-2 ATS (71.4%), and SU as a road favorite.
Ready to place some NFL Week 5 bets? Head to Bet FOX now for all your bets!
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