Rising mortgage costs to drive down house prices, Halifax warns – business live

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets.

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The UK housing market is slowing, and the crisis caused by the government’s mini-budget will make it worse.

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That’s the verdict from Halifax this morning. It reports that the average house prices dipped in September, by 0.1%, leaving the average property now costing £293,835.

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The annual house price inflation rate slowed for the third month in a row, to 9.9% from 11.4%, the lowest rate since January.

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house price inflation”,”credit”:”Photograph: 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Kim Kinnaird, director at Halifax Mortgages, reports that house prices have been largely flat since June, as the markets entered “a more sustained period of slower growth”.

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Kinnaird warns that house prices will come under heavier downward pressure in the months ahead, from rising borrowing costs and the cost of living crisis:

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While stamp duty cuts, the short supply of homes for sale and a strong labour market all support house prices, the prospect of interest rates continuing to rise sharply amid the cost of living squeeze, plus the impact in recent weeks of higher mortgage borrowing costs on affordability, are likely to exert more significant downward pressure on house prices in the months ahead.

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Kinnaird adds that “this will undoubtedly be a cause of some concern for homeowners”, but points out that recent property price inflation has been unprecented.

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It’s important to look at slower growth in this context – since the start of the pandemic average property values have risen by around +23% (almost £55,000) with detached house prices up by more than £100,000 over the same period.”

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Interest rate expectations soared during the market panic following the mini-budget, with the Bank of England expected to raise rates towards 6% by next summer.

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The average rate on two and five-year fixed mortgages rose over 6% this week, and is expected to keep rising. That is pricing some people out of the market, and leaving others facing a jump in repayments when they remortage.

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⚠️ British house prices fell for the second time in three months in September in month-on-month terms and rising borrowing costs are likely to exert more downward pressure soon, mortgage lender Halifax said on Friday.

– Reuters via https://t.co/ymHY6x4lOb https://t.co/nyhjA4w7WL pic.twitter.com/QRLxnXja9l

— PiQ  (@PriapusIQ) October 7, 2022

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Yesterday, UK bank bosses raised concerns over the state of the UK’s mortgage market at a high-level meeting at No 11 Downing Street.

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Kwasi Kwarteng is now considering extending the government’s mortgage guarantee scheme to help the market. That scheme lets banks and building societies buy a guarantee from the government on the slice of the mortgage between 80% and 95% of the property’s value, to protect them if a property is repossessed.

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Also coming up today

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The main event for the markets today should be September’s Non-Farm Payroll report, which will show how many jobs were created in America last month.

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Economists predict that hiring slowed, to around 250,000 from 315,000 in August, as rising interest rates slow economic growth. A weak jobs report could encourage the US Federall Reserve to slow its interest rate rises, which might weaken the dollar.

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With the current #US #market narrative being “bad is good”, markets are hoping for fairly weak non farm payroll (#NFP) numbers tonight.
However some commentators feel, #labour market weakness could take a while to happen. pic.twitter.com/0IITF7STPT

— Arjun G Nagarajan (@arjungn80) October 7, 2022

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The agenda

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7am BST: Halifax house price index

7.45am BST: French trade balance for August

9.30am BST: UK labour productivity for Q2

1.3pm BST: US Non-Farm payroll report

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Important events