by Good morning everyone, it’s Chris Bengel back with you.
You know what frustrates me? They rob us of the opportunity to see the story slowly. On Tuesday, the Blue Jays walked Aaron Judge with the Yankees four times. Since hitting No. 60 on Sept. 20 against the Pirates, Judge has walked 12 times. Teams just don’t seem to be trying him, which is unfortunate for all of us fans. He’ll get another chance to match Roger Maris’ record of 61 home runs on Wednesday against the Blue Jays. Go to the man and give him a chance to make history.
Anyway, let’s dive into tonight’s diamond picks.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Dodgers at Padres, 9:40 p.m. | Television: MLB.TV
Latest odds:
Los Angeles Dodgers -140
- Basic trend: Dodgers are 50-15 in their last 65 games against a right-handed starter
- The Pick: Dodgers (-140)
It’s rare that bettors can get the Dodgers at a low enough price, but when those opportunities present themselves, we have to take advantage of them. I certainly don’t hesitate when the Dodgers send their top starting pitcher Julio Urias to the mound.
Urias is tied for second in MLB wins (17) and the 26-year-old hurler has really turned it on over the final two months of the 2022 season. Over his last nine starts, Urias has posted a 7-1 record along with a .89 ERA and 54 strikeouts. He has allowed just one earned run or fewer in all but one of those starts. How did Urias do in that other start where he allowed more than one run? The left-hander gave up two earned runs on just five hits against the Padres. Simply put: Urias is all electric right now.
Jonathan Coachman is joined by Larry Hartstein, Mike McClure and John Bollman to lay down Wednesday’s best bets. Download and follow The Early Edge on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Meanwhile, the Padres will have Joe Musgrove hitting, who is certainly no slouch in comparison. However, the veteran right-hander has surrendered at least four earned runs in two of his last four starts. In one of those four-run outings, Musgrove gave up four earned runs on six hits against the Dodgers on September 11. The Dodgers lead the bigs in runs, so it’s obvious this lineup has the potential to get to Musgrove. Even if they only score a few runs, it should be more than enough considering how dominant Urias has been on the mound recently.
💰 More MLB options
USATSI
Rays at Guardians, 6:10 p.m. | Television: MLB.TV
Latest odds:
Below 6.5
The Pick: Under 6.5 runs (-120): — We get an amazing pitching match-up on Wednesday when the Guardians host the Rays. Triston McKenzie, who was one of the best pitchers in the second half, will be on the mound for the Guardians while Tyler Glasnow will make his debut in the 2022 season for the Rays. Considering the huge stuff these two hands have, the under is the game for me at this point.
McKenzie has been really great since the All-Star break. He has only yielded more than two earned runs in four of his 12 starts during the second half of the season. McKenzie is coming off an impressive outing against the White Sox in which he gave up just two earned runs on six hits while striking out 13 in eight innings. Aside from his recent success, the Rays have scored two runs or fewer in five of their last eight games, so McKenzie certainly has the ability to shut them down.
On the other hand, Glasnow will likely be in a field since he will be making his season debut following Tommy John surgery. Still, it’s hard to believe that Glasnow won’t have shades of his old self. Even if Glasnow doesn’t throw more than a few innings, the Rays also have the sixth-best bullpen ERA (3.30) in all of baseball.
Basic trend: Under is 4-1 in Rays last five games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15
Blue Jays at Yankees, 7:07 p.m. | Television: MLB.TV
The Pick: Gerrit Cole Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+102): — Maybe you guys (and possibly the editor of this newsletter, Nick Parco) will think I’m crazy for this. However, I feel confident going down here in the strikeout bracket of Gerrit Cole tonight.
Look, Cole has been hitting well lately and has recorded at least eight strikeouts in each of his last four starts. This would lead you to believe that the over should be the game. Negative. In Cole’s two starts against the Blue Jays this season, he has recorded six strikeouts or fewer. In fact, Cole hasn’t recorded more than six punch-outs in his last five starts against the Blue Jays dating back to the 2021 season. It also doesn’t hurt that the Blue Jays are one of the most disciplined teams in baseball at the plate, as they win the fifth fewest times in all of baseball.
Basic trend: Cole has recorded six or fewer hits in each of his two starts against the Blue Jays this season
