The most important midterm elections a month before Election Day

mLecture day is less than a month away and the 2022 midterms are entering their final sprint.

Republicans still hope that Americans’ frustration with inflation and the economy, as well as rising crime, will overshadow their concerns about the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization reversal of decision Roe v. Wade.

Instead, Democrats hope to make abortion a centerpiece of the election, but they also hope to brand “MAGA Republicans” as threats to democracy and highlight the January 6th uprising.

Here are the most important elections to watch this cycle.

Nevada Senate

Republicans haven’t won a Senate race in Nevada since 2012. President Joe Biden won the state by about the same margin as Hillary Clinton, but his approval rating remains low in the state at 43 percent, according to Independent Nevada/OH Predictive Insights poll from this month.

The same poll showed former Attorney General Adam Laxalt beating Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto by two points, 45 percent to 43 percent. A CNN/SSRS poll also showed Mr. Laxalt leading with 48 percent of the vote to Ms. Cortez Masto’s 46 percent.

At the same time, the polls have historically missed the mark in Nevada. The Covid-19 pandemic has devastated the state’s hospitality industry at a time when many Latinos are most disillusioned with the Democratic Party. All of this makes Nevada the most likely Senate seat for a flip.

Ms. Cortez Masto, the first and so far only Latina senator, is seeking re-election against Mr. Laxalt, the former attorney general and grandson of former senator and governor Paul Laxalt. Former President Donald Trump traveled to Nevada this weekend to support his preferred candidate. Ms. Cortez Masto for her part criticized Mr. Laxalt for promoting the big lie that the 2020 presidential election was stolen.

Pennsylvania Senate

The race to replace retiring Sen. Pat Toomey has easily become the ugliest and most intensely personal race of the 2022 midterms.

Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman’s lead against celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz has eroded, thanks to a barrage of ads portraying the Democrat as soft on crime. University of Suffolk/USA Today A network poll showed Mr Fetterman ahead of Dr Oz 46.4% to 40%. A big factor was that Mr. Fetterman’s approval rating rose 17 points as Dr. Oz’s support among Republicans solidified. Mr. Fetterman, for his part, heard a story from the feminist website Jezebel which reviewed research conducted by Dr. Oz’s team at Columbia University and found that it potentially killed more than 300 dogs. The two will face off in a debate on October 25.

Senate of Georgia

The Georgia Senate race took center stage last week when The Daily Beast reported that Republican candidate Herschel Walker allegedly paid for a woman’s abortion despite his strong opposition to it on the campaign trail. The New York Times later confirmed the story and reported that Mr. Walker had pressured the same woman into having another abortion, which she refused. The independent has reached out to the Walker campaign.

None of the bad press has deterred Republicans from backing Mr Walker as he challenges Senator Raphael Warnock. For his part, Mr Warnock avoided directly criticizing Mr Walker, but a poll showed support for Mr Walker had fallen. The two will square off in their only confirmed debate on Friday.

Governor of Arizona

Arizona’s Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs is facing Republican candidate and former news anchor Carrie Lake. Ms Lake has vigorously parroted Mr Trump’s lies about stealing the 2020 presidential election, while Ms Hobbs has been the target of threats as she oversees the election.

In addition, Ms. Lake called for the Arizona election results to be decertified and said she would not have certified Biden’s victory in the state. A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday showed both participating at 49 percent each. But Ms Hobbs refused to discuss it with Ms Lake, saying Face the Nation that he refuses to “I have no desire to be part of the spectacle he wants to create because it does no service to the voters.”

Arizona Senate

Arizona’s Senate race is much less dynamic, though still contested. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly and Republican challenger Blake Masters clashed last week during a debate. The same CBS News/YouGov poll showed Mr Kelly ahead of Mr Masters 51% to 48%. In recent months, Mr. Masters has sought to defend his earlier hard-line position on abortion, even scrubbing his website.

Mr Kelly hit out at Mr Masters in their debate for also deleting parts of his website about the “big lie”. Mr. Masters, for his part, sought to connect Mr. Kelly with Biden, who, despite winning the state in 2020, is unpopular.

Kelly ran an ad saying he supports closing loopholes on the US-Mexico border, saying he stands on the left when they want to defund the police and I stand on the right when they want a national abortion ban. before adding, “when Joe Biden gets it wrong, I call him out.”

Governor of Florida and Texas

Republican incumbents Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas have caused a national uproar by sending migrants and refugees into Democratic areas of the country as a means of criticizing the Biden administration’s policies on the US-Mexico border. But despite criticism from Democrats, both men are in a strong position to seek re-election.

While Democrat Beto O’Rook repeatedly criticized Mr. Abbott for his positions on guns and abortion in the debate and on the campaign trail, a Quinnipiac poll showed Mr. Abbott leading Mr. O’Rourke by seven points in the poll and most voters rank the economy. as the biggest issue since the Texas-Mexico border. Meanwhile, a Siena College poll shows Mr. DeSantis beating former governor and congressman Charlie Crist 49 percent to 41 percent.

Wisconsin Senate

Democrats’ hopes of defeating Republican Sen. Ron Johnson appear to be fading. Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes launched into a debate Friday, and Barnes tried to brand Johnson as an extremist for downplaying the Jan. 6 uprising and trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election, as well as his position on abortion. In August, Barnes’ rivals in the Democratic primary dropped out and endorsed him.

But since then, Republicans have hammered him saying he supports defunding police, and CNN reported that there are signs he has at least supported moving police funding to other areas. A CBS News/YouGov poll shows Johnson beating Barnes by one point.